With less than a week to go before the election, the Investment Team at Irwin Mitchell assess the latest polling data along with the main points in each party’s manifestos and what impact this could have on your wealth.
- Polls suggest opposition leader Keir Starmer is on track to enter Downing Street as Prime Minister after the general election on the 4th of July.
- As of the 20th of June, the Labour Party polled at 41.8% versus 21.0% for the Conservatives. If correct this would present Labour with a 21% margin of victory.
- YouGov's most recent projection suggested the Labour Party is heading for a historic majority, bigger than the 418 seats won under Tony Blair in 1997.
- Reform UK have gained significant support since Nigel Farage announced his leadership of the party. The average polling rate for Reform UK is 15.1%, however the UK's first past-the-post system means it's unlikely to more than a few seats.
- Reform UK have had a significant impact on the Conservative party and have split the vote, their presence will likely be felt, and pressure could be applied to areas such as migration and taxation to the future Conservative party.
- The latest polling data suggests that only 19% of voters have a positive opinion of the Prime Minister, compared to 75% sharing a negative view. Only 43% of those who backed the party in 2019 still have a favourable view of the Conservatives.
- Labour leader Keir Starmer continues to be significantly more popular (or less unpopular) than his Conservative counterpart.
