Seniors housing

opportunity scores

By overlaying key demographic and economic indicators onto the planning policy survey, we have identified locations where there are the greatest prospects for seniors housing to be developed. We have also found areas where bringing forward new developments may be more challenging.

As well as the planning scores, our model considers the following metrics:

  • 65+ population change, 2022-2037: ONS projections providing an estimate of the growth in the number of individuals aged 65+ in each local authority over the 15 year period.
  • Average 65+ owner occupier property value: using a combination of datasets, we estimate the average value of a property owned by a 65+ owner occupier in each local authority. We compare it to the average sale price of a seniors housing unit in an integrated retirement community in that region. We achieved this using a combination of Land Registry, Experian, Rightmove and LonRes data.
  • Percentage of 65+ households that are owner occupiers/ social renters: for the private opportunity score, we incorporate the proportion of 65+ households that are owner occupiers. For the affordable opportunity score, we incorporate the proportion of 65+ households that are social renters.
  • Average achieved residential £psf: using Land Registry and Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) data, we calculate the average achieved £psf for sales in each local authority, across the wider residential sales market.
  • Number of seniors housing units delivered, 2019-2023: using data from the Elderly Accommodation Counsel and local planning portals, we calculate the number of private and affordable seniors housing units that were delivered in each local authority from 2019 to 2023.

We gave these metrics a weighting based on their relative importance to the private and affordable seniors housing markets. There’s a clear distinction in the offering and proposition of these products, so target areas will be different.

These metrics provide an accurate reflection of the demand and supply landscape in each local authority. However, there are other key indicators that a seniors housing operator would consider on a more granular and site-specific basis. Analysis on supply pipeline, affordability, care needs and demand-supply gaps are also crucial to the site finding and decision-making process.

The relationship between planning and seniors housing opportunity score

Whilst there’s a correlation between a local authority’s planning score, as identified by the survey, and its overall opportunity score, it isn’t a clear-cut relationship. Planning authorities, with low planning rankings, can still perform strongly on other metrics, and vice versa.

But it’s clear that, in some parts of the country, adjustments to a council’s policy approach are needed to unlock the sector’s true potential for growth.

In these areas, the planning position is still acting as a brake on the sector’s ability to develop and meet the needs of the local population.

Andrew Sandison

Senior Research Analyst Knight Frank

andrew.sandison@knightfrank.com

+44 (0)20 7861 1494

Changes in opportunity scores

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